RETIREMENTdecision model
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Worked example · computed live

Can we both stop working at the same time?

Watch the model organize one couple’s finances — and show why California takes almost nothing from their Social Security.

One year of their retirement, at 72

$58,800

Social Security received

$170/yr

California tax on it

Dana and Marcus want to pay what they owe and no more — they just cannot tell which of the rules are theirs. Three systems get a say in a Social Security dollar. Only California’s answer is not zero this year, and its $170 is on the small withdrawal, not on the benefit.

One dollar, three rules

The danger is not a rule anyone gets wrong. It is a rule everyone half-knows. Two of those three answers are zero — and the difference between a zero that was calculated and a zero that was assumed is the whole of this report. Those zeros belong to this year and these figures, not to the rule: they are a result, not a property of being retired in California. Half a rule feels like knowing right up until the year it stops being true, which is why the model runs all three, in every year of the plan.

Dana & Marcus Whitfield

62 and 60, Sacramento, California

Dana and Marcus are 62 and 60, both still working in Sacramento. Neither has a pension, so Social Security and a shared $520,000 have to carry the whole of retirement.

What they have

Taxable
$95,000
Tax-deferred
$360,000
Tax Advantage (Roth)
$65,000
Social Security at 67
$2,850/mo + $2,050/mo
Still working
$78,000 + $62,000
Spending
$5,900/mo
Health cover before Medicare
$1,150/mo

What they’re asking

Can we actually both stop at the same time, or does one of us keep working?

Marcus turns 65 two years after Dana. What do we do about his insurance in between?

Does California tax our Social Security? Everyone tells us something different.

They are here because they are ordinary. No unusual assets, no complicated benefits, nothing to show off — which makes them the right household to check our arithmetic against, because every figure on their report traces back to a rule you can go and read.

The report works through these in its own order. Every one of them is answered — the answers are gathered at the end.

Run the numbers.

The full report is below, computed in your browser from exactly the figures above. Nothing is withheld and nothing is a screenshot — the controls in it work, and moving one re-runs the whole projection.

1 · Position

Every number on this page has a trace. Open one and you get the rule, the source, and the arithmetic — not a citation, the actual working.

3 · Timing

Marcus turns 65 two years after Dana. Watch the health cost change shape twice: once when she moves to Medicare, again when he does.

2 · Capacity

At 72 they draw about $58,800 of Social Security and pay roughly $170 a year in California tax. California does not tax Social Security at all — the state bill is on the deferred withdrawal beside it, and nothing else.

You now know enough to know who to call

A CFP, or a Social Security claiming specialist

“How should we sequence our two claims to protect whichever of us is left?”

We compare claim ages on the figures entered here, but sequencing two people’s claims to maximise a survivor benefit needs both full earnings records, which we do not hold.

← All sample householdsSAMPLE HOUSEHOLD · CALCULATED IN YOUR BROWSER

Five questions. One page each.

In 2028: $0 of income against $84,600 of chosen spending, leaving $84,600 to come from savings.

A print copy of everything below.
ScenarioTwo-person retirement planSample household · illustrative figures
Born1964 + 1966
Retire2028
Starting savings$520,000
Monthly spending$5,900
View throughAge 100
How to read this

Not every number here is equally solid, and you should be able to tell which is which at a glance. Each result carries one of four states — a statement about the evidence behind the number, never a judgement about your finances.

CompleteEverything it needs was entered and is current.
ProvisionalCalculable, but resting on a named estimate or gap.
UnavailableWithheld on purpose — guessing would look trustworthy and be wrong.
Not applicableChecked, and it does not apply to you.

A blank field is never read as a zero. If you never told us about a pension, this report says so — because a $0 quietly becomes part of the answer and a blank does not.

01

Position

Where you stand on the date you chose.

Where you stand

Given what you have told us, what does your cash flow look like on 30 June 2028?

Target-date household cash-flow position

In 2028, no income arrives on its own. Your chosen spending for that year is $84,600. The difference — $84,600 — comes out of your accounts.

Your chosen spending for the year$84,600
Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Social SecurityNot yetStarts later in the timeline
PensionNoneConfirmed by you
Other regular incomeNone enteredRental, part-time work, annuities
How this number was worked outThe rule, the published source, and the arithmetic — line by line

This figure uses no investment return and no inflation forecast. It is arithmetic on the amounts you entered, at the date you chose, in today's dollars.

income arriving at 30 June 2028
  Social Security                 $0
  pension                         $0
  other regular income            $0
                                  ------------
                                  $0

spending chosen for that year     $84,600

position = $0 - $84,600 = -$84,600 drawn from savings

What is not in here: tax on the withdrawal and the health premium are modelled elsewhere in the projection but are not netted into this headline. This page answers what arrives against what you plan to spend, and nothing more.

02

Capacity

How your resources compare with the spending you chose.

How do the resources you entered compare with the spending you chose?

Spending coverage under selected assumptions

You entered $520,000 of savings. The first year's draw of $84,600 is 16.3% of it. This report does not tell you whether that rate is sustainable — that is a conversation, not a calculation.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Two ways of measuring the same draw. Both are shown because they answer different questions.
Measured againstAmountFirst-year drawBasis
Savings you enteredThe money that exists today$520,00016.3%Entered fact
Modelled balance at your target dateAfter further saving and 8% assumed growth$605,08214.0%Model-derived

Why the second row is the weaker of the two. $605,082 assumes your investments return 8% a year between now and then — a figure you chose. Two flat years instead would leave you nearer the $520,000 line, and move the draw back towards 16.3% before you have spent a thing.

Essential spending$52,800/yrStill has to be paid in a difficult year
Discretionary spending$18,000/yrThe part you could choose to cut back
Income against essentials alone0%Before touching savings
What drives the differenceThe inputs doing the most work in this resultEach row re-runs the whole model with one input changed and nothing else touched.
Monthly spending$5,900/mo
Model treatment

Base input is $5,900/mo; first-retirement modeled cost is about $7,050/mo after modeled additions.

Result signal

$7,050/mo is the first-year portfolio need before both claimed benefits begin.

Starting savings$520,000
Model treatment

Provides the initial funding base across taxable, tax-deferred, and Tax Advantage (Roth) accounts.

Result signal

$68,689 remains at the selected horizon in this path.

Social Security$2,850 + $2,050/mo at stated ages
Model treatment

Adds household income when each person claims.

Result signal

Household Social Security modeled at $4,900/mo once both benefits are in payment; this can differ from the entered reference amounts.

Retirement timing2028
Model treatment

Sets the end of saving and the start of portfolio-funded spending.

Result signal

Funded through age 100 at the selected timeline.

Market assumptions8% retirement accounts; 3% taxable/cash
Model treatment

Retirement accounts and taxable/cash balances use separate growth assumptions; volatility affects the range test.

Result signal

12% volatility is used for the 300-path market stress test.

Inflation and tax2.5% inflation; CA tax treatment
Model treatment

Future costs are reported in today’s dollars; modeled tax and IRMAA are added to spending where applicable.

Result signal

The tax result is a planning estimate, not a tax-return calculation.

Health costs$1,150/mo before Medicare; Medicare on
Model treatment

Health insurance, Medicare Part B, and applicable IRMAA can be added to modeled expense.

Result signal

Part D plan premiums, Medigap, and Medicare Advantage premiums are not included.

Pre-retirement saving$78,000/yr salary + $62,000/yr spouse
Model treatment

Salary-driven contributions continue until the retirement year; pre-retirement living costs and income tax are not modeled.

Result signal

Contributions use 10% / 8% employee saving plus employer match where entered.

03

Timing

When does anything actually change?

Income and coverage timeline

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

  • 2028 · you are 64, your spouse 62 · your choice

    Work income stops. Withdrawals begin.

    No guaranteed income arrives yet, so your savings carry all $84,600 of spending until the first payment starts in 2031.

  • 2029 · you are 65, your spouse 63 · automatic

    You reach Medicare age.

    Your Part B premium and any income-related surcharge begin. Your spouse is not eligible for another 2 years, so private cover for them continues until 2031 — the part of the $1,150/mo premium that is theirs does not end here.

  • 2029 · you are 65, your spouse 63 · automatic

    Withdrawals start coming from tax-deferred savings.

    Taxable and cash accounts are close to exhausted. Money drawn from here is taxed as ordinary income.

  • 2031 · you are 67, your spouse 65 · automatic

    Your spouse reaches Medicare age.

    Private cover ends for the household. Both of you are now on Part B, each with your own premium and any surcharge priced off the same household income.

  • 2031 · you are 67, your spouse 65 · your choice

    Social Security begins — $2,850 a month.

    The monthly draw on savings moves from about $7,106 to about $4,111.

  • 2033 · you are 69, your spouse 67 · your choice

    Household benefit rises to $4,900 a month.

    The second benefit starts. The years before this point are the stretch your savings have to cover.

  • 2039 · you are 75, your spouse 73 · automatic

    Required minimum distributions begin.

    Born in 1964, your applicable age is 75 under current rules. A minimum amount must come out of tax-deferred accounts each year whether or not you need it.

Retirement cash flow

How spending is funded

Monthly spending is covered by modeled income first, then by the account sources shown in the legend.

Supporting: health coverage timelineWhat cover costs, year by year, and where the figure came from
What your healthcare actually costsProvisional

After 65 the model covers the Part B premium and income-related surcharges only. Part D, Medigap or Advantage, dental, vision and hearing sit outside these figures.

04

Choices

Which changes move this picture, and what should you be asking?

Decision levers to discuss

Complete

You selected both cases yourself, and both were run through the same model with everything else held constant. This describes a difference — it does not say which to pick.

The comparison you choseRetirement year: 2028 against 2030Both cases run through the same model with everything else held constant. Neither is described here as better.
What changedYour planThe alternativeDifference
Retirement year20282030
Modelled balance at age 100$68,689$1,023,614+$954,925
Modelled paths funded to age 10042%80%+38 pts

Both columns rest on the same assumptions, so the difference between them is more reliable than either figure on its own.

Interactive what-if

Explore a different scenario

Change one understandable lever and compare the updated story with the original. Your original inputs stay unchanged.

Original scenario
$
Drag to explore a comfortable range, or enter an exact amount. Results update immediately as a valid value changes. You entered this as a split, so the change is taken off what you called discretionary first: this view is $4,400 essential plus $1,500 discretionary.
Your modeled best age: 69
Spouse modeled best age: 62
Changes this view's cutoff. The engine's long-life stress test still runs through age 100; this is not a life-expectancy prediction.

Modeled best age means the highest-ending-balance result in this comparison; it is not an automatic recommendation.

Values update immediately. Showing: Funded through age 100; current ending assets $68,689 at age 100.
What moves the answer mostOne change at a time, by size of effectEach row re-runs the whole model with a single input changed and nothing else touched. Ordering describes size, not preference: none of these is recommended.
Retiring 2 years later+$954,925 at age 100Retirement year 2028 → 2030 (age 66)
Spending $500/mo less+$624,799 at age 100Monthly living expense $5,900 → $5,400
Saving $500/mo more+$81,303 at age 100Contribution 10.0% → 17.7% of salary
Claiming Social Security at 70+$43,504 at age 100Claim age 67 → 70
Supporting: comparing claiming agesAll nine claiming ages from 62 to 70, run through the same model
Social Security context

What the claiming ages mean

General SSA reference for an own retirement benefit. Use your Social Security statement for the exact dollar amount; this is context, not a claiming recommendation.

YouFull retirement age: 67Scenario start age: 67
SpouseFull retirement age: 67Scenario start age: 67

For people born in 1960 or later, an own retirement benefit is about 70% at age 62, 100% at age 67, and 124% at age 70. Earlier birth years have a different full retirement age. Spousal and survivor benefits can follow different rules. Check your Social Security statement.

The Retirement Decision Model is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.

Questions worth taking to a professional
  • Taxable savings run out before your tax-deferred money is touched. Is there a withdrawal sequence that handles that transition better than taxable, then tax-deferred, then Roth?
  • There is a stretch at the start of retirement with no Social Security arriving. Is drawing on savings through it the right shape, or is there a case for claiming earlier?
  • You have $360,000 in tax-deferred savings and a stretch before required distributions begin. Does a Roth conversion belong in the conversation?
  • Long-term care is not in these numbers at all. What would it take to cover it, and is that a cost this plan could absorb?
05

Uncertainty

What could weaken all of this, and what have we still not been told?

Risks to the plan and evidence still missing

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

4 figures in this report are estimates, defaults, or blanks rather than something you told us. 1 of them could move the picture materially.

You told us markets worry you most

The stress test below is the direct answer to that — it varies the order good and bad years arrive in, holding everything else fixed. Read what it does not vary just as carefully.

The ones that could move the picture.
What it isCurrentlyWhy it matters
Pre-Medicare health coverEntered fact$1,150/moA quoted premium. After 65 the model still covers Part B and surcharges only.
Long-term careEntered factDeliberately excludedNot modelled at all. For a household planning into their nineties, this is the largest single cost that could arrive and has no place in these numbers.
Investment returnYour assumption8% a year, 12% volatilityYou set this yourself. Every balance after the target date depends on it.
The rest of the ledger.
What it isCurrentlyWhy it matters
PensionEntered factConfirmed: none
Dates on account balancesEntered fact31 January 2026
Exact dates of birth and claimEntered fact18 April 1964
Essential vs discretionary spendingYour assumption$4,400 + $1,500/mo
Taxable account cost basisYour assumption100%
DebtEntered factConfirmed: none
Survivor positionYour assumptionModelled from age 84
Testing the plan against market ups and downsHow much could the result vary?Stress test: 300 different return scenarios, not 300 predictions of your future.
Weaker 10%Age 82
MedianAge 96
Stronger 10%Funded past age 100

42% of modeled return paths stay funded through age 100. The model ran 300 paths using the entered 8% return and 12% volatility assumptions. These paths show how outcomes vary; they are not forecasts or probabilities about one specific future.

Balance range over timeP10–P90 modeled balance rangeThe shaded band contains the weaker-to-stronger 80% range; the line is the median path.
Order of returnsThe same returns, in two different ordersOne set of 39 yearly returns, averaging 7.7%, run best-first and then worst-first. Nothing else changes between the two columns.
Good years firstFunded to 100$3,064,522 at age 100
Bad years firstDepletes at 68$0 at age 100

$3,064,522 separates the two, from ordering alone. The two paths begin to diverge at age 62. Poor returns early in retirement are withdrawn against a smaller balance, which the same returns arriving later do not do. This is one illustration, not a prediction.

Read the chart as a range of modeled account balances, not as a probability forecast. The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile paths use the same seeded 300-path stress test summarized above.

View balance-range dataEvery fifth age, with the weaker, median and stronger paths side by side
AgeWeaker 10%MedianStronger 10%
62$520,000$520,000$520,000
65$419,414$535,847$672,280
70$148,496$355,880$651,807
75$95,329$333,380$807,124
80$26,122$343,017$946,528
85$0$324,550$1,097,159
90$0$187,340$1,288,489
95$0$40,753$1,387,821
100$0$0$1,509,249

Read that result carefully. A funded-paths figure is a property of the assumptions, not evidence that a plan is safe. Every one of those runs began from a 8% average return, every one included your other income arriving without fail, and none of them included long-term care, Part D, Medigap, or a cost basis different from the one entered. The test varies one thing — the order market returns arrive in — and holds every other uncertainty on this page fixed.

Assumptions, rules applied, and where they were simplifiedYour inputs · how the result is built · model rules · what is not modeled · the calculation trace
Your inputsRetirement 2028; spending $5,900/mo; savings $520,000; Social Security ages 67/67.
How the result is builtStarting savings are split across taxable/cash $95,000, tax-deferred $360,000, and Tax Advantage (Roth) $65,000. Contributions continue until retirement when salary is entered; retirement spending is funded by modeled income first, then taxable/cash, tax-deferred, and Tax Advantage (Roth) balances.
Model rulesProjection through age 100 in this view; the engine stress test still runs through age 100; today's dollars; 300 Monte Carlo trials; account-specific withdrawal and tax treatment.
Not modeled or simplifiedPre-retirement spending and income tax are not modeled. Medicare includes Part B and applicable IRMAA only; Part D plan premiums, Medigap, and Medicare Advantage premiums are not included. Tax, Social Security, and health estimates should be verified against your own documents.
Calculation trace
  1. 1. Starting balance $520,000 total: $95,000 taxable/cash + $360,000 tax-deferred + $65,000 Tax Advantage (Roth) $520,000 enters the projection
  2. 2. Timeline Retirement year 2028: The model starts retirement withdrawals at age 64 and runs through age 100. Selected projection uses claim age 67 and spouse age 67
  3. 3. Income and cost First retired year 2028: $5,900/mo base spending + $1,150/mo modeled additions; income offsets the cost first. $0/mo modeled income; $7,050/mo total expense
  4. 4. Portfolio funding First retired year 2028: After modeled income, withdrawals use taxable/cash, then tax-deferred, then Tax Advantage (Roth); any remaining need is recorded as shortfall. $7,050/mo withdrawn; $0/mo shortfall
  5. 5. Selected endpoint Fixed 8.0% annual return path: Monthly balances, taxes, inflation, Medicare/IRMAA, and entered income rules are applied through age 100. $68,689 at age 100
  6. 6. Range test 300 seeded return paths: Each path varies annual returns around 8.0% using 12.0% volatility; the seed keeps the screen and PDF reproducible. 125 of 300 paths funded through age 100 (42%)

Their questions, answered

What the report told them

Every figure below comes from the report above — nothing here is worked out separately, and each answer links to the stop that shows how it was reached.

“Can we actually both stop at the same time, or does one of us keep working?”

You can, and the plan holds on a steady return — but the first five years carry all of the risk. Stopping together in 2028 means your savings cover every dollar of the $84,600 you spend that year, including the health premium, with no Social Security at all until 2031 and no second benefit until 2033. On an 8% return the money reaches 100 with $68,689 left. Under the 300-path stress test, 125 of them last that long — 42%. Working to 2030 instead: 80%. That is a difference between two cases you chose, not a recommendation.

3 · Timing4 · Choices5 · Uncertainty

“Marcus turns 65 two years after Dana. What do we do about his insurance in between?”

You cover him privately for two years, and it is the most expensive stretch in the plan. Dana moves to Medicare in 2029; Marcus is not eligible until 2031, so his share of the $1,150/mo premium runs on through 2029 and 2030 while Dana pays Part B alongside it. No subsidy helps here — the credit is worked out from the previous year’s income, and in 2027 you were still earning.

3 · Timing

“Does California tax our Social Security? Everyone tells us something different.”

No. California taxes none of it. At 72 you draw about $58,800 a year of benefit and pay roughly $170 a year in California tax — and that $170 is on the withdrawal beside it, not on the benefit. Federally it is different again: part of that same benefit is taxable under the provisional-income rule, and all of it counts toward the Medicare surcharge test. One dollar, three sets of rules, and the trace shows each one.

2 · Capacity1 · Position

What we could not tell them

Almost nothing, in their case — they answered every question, so every result on their report is marked Complete. That is what a fully evidenced plan looks like, and it is rarer than it should be.

Your turn

Dana and Marcus answered every question we asked, so every result on their report is marked Complete. Yours can be too.

Free to read · computed in your browser · we email once, when it opens

Or read another household — all six are here. Each one reaches a different limit.

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