RETIREMENTdecision model
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Worked example · computed live

What happens to me if he goes first?

Watch the model follow a pension election made seven years ago all the way through to what it means for Dee.

His pension, before and after

$3,400/mo

While Ray is alive

$1,700/mo

Continuing to Dee

Ray ticked 50% to protect Dee, and neither of them has ever been able to tell whether it was enough. It cannot be changed now. What can be settled is what it is worth — had he taken the higher single-life payment instead, Dee’s figure here would be zero.

Before and after

The largest decision in a retirement plan is often not an investment decision, and often was not recognised as a decision at the time. It was a box on a form, ticked in a week full of forms, years before anyone would feel it. Ray’s is worth more to Dee than every contribution and every rate of return in this plan put together. A calculator that starts from the portfolio will never show her that — it treats the pension as a given and models the part that moves. This one reads the plan terms first, then asks what is left for the portfolio to decide.

Dee & Ray Okonkwo

58 and 62, Colorado Springs, Colorado

Dee is 58 and still working in Colorado Springs. Ray is 62, retired from the Army, and has been drawing a pension with a cost-of-living adjustment since he was 55. Between them they have $150,000 saved — which is less than it sounds, because the pension is doing the work a portfolio would otherwise do.

What they have

Taxable
$25,000
Tax-deferred
$105,000
Tax Advantage (Roth)
$20,000
Social Security at 67
$2,100/mo + $2,600/mo
Pension
$3,400/mo, 50% survivor
Still working
$54,000
Spending
$5,400/mo
Health cover before Medicare
$1,050/mo

What they’re asking

Ray picked the 50% survivor option seven years ago. Was that the right call?

Does Colorado tax military retirement? We've been told both.

What actually happens to me if Ray goes first?

Because the largest number in their plan was decided seven years ago, by a form Ray filled in when he retired. Households like theirs are usually modelled as though the investing decisions matter most. Here they do not come close.

The report works through these in its own order. Every one of them is answered — the answers are gathered at the end.

Run the numbers.

The full report is below, computed in your browser from exactly the figures above. Nothing is withheld and nothing is a screenshot — the controls in it work, and moving one re-runs the whole projection.

3 · Timing

Three unrelated rules land on Ray’s 65th birthday. Colorado’s military pension exemption rises from $20,000 to $24,000, Medicare starts, and the pre-Medicare premium stops. None of the three knows the other two exist.

5 · Uncertainty

Then the survivor view. Ray’s pension halves, because he elected 50% continuation. Dee also loses the smaller of their two Social Security cheques — that is automatic, and the pension election cannot protect her from it.

5 · Uncertainty

Household income falls by more than half. Household spending does not. That gap is the single most consequential number on their report, and it was set by a form, not by a portfolio.

You now know enough to know who to call

A CFP who handles military benefits

“Given the gap this shows, what is the cheapest way to close it — and does SBP still make sense alongside what we already hold?”

The election is irrevocable and it interacts with life insurance and with Dee’s own benefit. We can show you the size of the gap. We cannot price the ways to close it.

← All sample householdsSAMPLE HOUSEHOLD · CALCULATED IN YOUR BROWSER

Five questions. One page each.

In 2032: $72,000 of income against $76,623 of chosen spending, leaving $4,623 to come from savings.

A print copy of everything below.
ScenarioTwo-person retirement planSample household · illustrative figures
Born1968 + 1964
Retire2032
Starting savings$150,000
Monthly spending$5,400
View throughAge 100
How to read this

Not every number here is equally solid, and you should be able to tell which is which at a glance. Each result carries one of four states — a statement about the evidence behind the number, never a judgement about your finances.

CompleteEverything it needs was entered and is current.
ProvisionalCalculable, but resting on a named estimate or gap.
UnavailableWithheld on purpose — guessing would look trustworthy and be wrong.
Not applicableChecked, and it does not apply to you.

A blank field is never read as a zero. If you never told us about a pension, this report says so — because a $0 quietly becomes part of the answer and a blank does not.

01

Position

Where you stand on the date you chose.

Where you stand

Given what you have told us, what does your cash flow look like on 31 March 2032?

Target-date household cash-flow position

In 2032, $72,000 arrives on its own. Your chosen spending for that year is $76,623. The difference — $4,623 — comes out of your accounts.

Your chosen spending for the year$76,623
Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Social Security$31,200/yrIn payment at this date
Pension$40,800/yrConfirmed by you
Other regular incomeNone enteredRental, part-time work, annuities
How this number was worked outThe rule, the published source, and the arithmetic — line by line

This figure uses no investment return and no inflation forecast. It is arithmetic on the amounts you entered, at the date you chose, in today's dollars.

income arriving at 31 March 2032
  Social Security                 $31,200
  pension                         $40,800
  other regular income            $0
                                  ------------
                                  $72,000

spending chosen for that year     $76,623

position = $72,000 - $76,623 = -$4,623 drawn from savings

What is not in here: tax on the withdrawal and the health premium are modelled elsewhere in the projection but are not netted into this headline. This page answers what arrives against what you plan to spend, and nothing more.

02

Capacity

How your resources compare with the spending you chose.

How do the resources you entered compare with the spending you chose?

Spending coverage under selected assumptions

You entered $150,000 of savings. The first year's draw of $4,623 is 3.1% of it. This report does not tell you whether that rate is sustainable — that is a conversation, not a calculation.

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

Two ways of measuring the same draw. Both are shown because they answer different questions.
Measured againstAmountFirst-year drawBasis
Savings you enteredThe money that exists today$150,0003.1%Entered fact
Modelled balance at your target dateAfter further saving and 8% assumed growth$242,3531.9%Model-derived

Why the second row is the weaker of the two. $242,353 assumes your investments return 8% a year between now and then — a figure you chose. Two flat years instead would leave you nearer the $150,000 line, and move the draw back towards 3.1% before you have spent a thing.

Essential spending$46,800/yrStill has to be paid in a difficult year
Discretionary spending$18,000/yrThe part you could choose to cut back
Income against essentials alone154%Before touching savings
What drives the differenceThe inputs doing the most work in this resultEach row re-runs the whole model with one input changed and nothing else touched.
Monthly spending$5,400/mo
Model treatment

Base input is $5,400/mo; first-retirement modeled cost is about $6,385/mo after modeled additions.

Result signal

$385/mo is the first-year portfolio need before both claimed benefits begin.

Starting savings$150,000
Model treatment

Provides the initial funding base across taxable, tax-deferred, and Tax Advantage (Roth) accounts.

Result signal

$627,964 remains at the selected horizon in this path.

Social Security$2,100 + $2,600/mo at stated ages
Model treatment

Adds household income when each person claims.

Result signal

Household Social Security modeled at $4,700/mo once both benefits are in payment; this can differ from the entered reference amounts.

Retirement timing2032
Model treatment

Sets the end of saving and the start of portfolio-funded spending.

Result signal

Funded through age 100 at the selected timeline.

Market assumptions8% retirement accounts; 3% taxable/cash
Model treatment

Retirement accounts and taxable/cash balances use separate growth assumptions; volatility affects the range test.

Result signal

12% volatility is used for the 300-path market stress test.

Inflation and tax2.5% inflation; CO tax treatment
Model treatment

Future costs are reported in today’s dollars; modeled tax and IRMAA are added to spending where applicable.

Result signal

The tax result is a planning estimate, not a tax-return calculation.

Health costs$1,050/mo before Medicare; Medicare on
Model treatment

Health insurance, Medicare Part B, and applicable IRMAA can be added to modeled expense.

Result signal

Part D plan premiums, Medigap, and Medicare Advantage premiums are not included.

Pre-retirement saving$54,000/yr salary + $0/yr spouse
Model treatment

Salary-driven contributions continue until the retirement year; pre-retirement living costs and income tax are not modeled.

Result signal

Contributions use 9% / 10% employee saving plus employer match where entered.

03

Timing

When does anything actually change?

Income and coverage timeline

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

  • 2032 · you are 64, your spouse 68 · your choice

    Work income stops. Withdrawals begin.

    From here $72,000 a year of income and $4,623 a year from your savings cover $76,623 of spending.

  • 2032 · you are 64, your spouse 68 · your choice

    Social Security begins — $2,600 a month.

    The largest single change to what has to come out of savings.

  • 2033 · you are 65, your spouse 69 · automatic

    You reach Medicare age.

    The $1,050/mo pre-Medicare premium ends for you, and the Part B premium plus any income-related surcharge begins.

  • 2035 · you are 67, your spouse 71 · your choice

    Household benefit rises to $4,700 a month.

    The second benefit starts. The years before this point are the stretch your savings have to cover.

  • 2043 · you are 75, your spouse 79 · automatic

    Withdrawals start coming from tax-deferred savings.

    Taxable and cash accounts are close to exhausted. Money drawn from here is taxed as ordinary income.

  • 2043 · you are 75, your spouse 79 · automatic

    Required minimum distributions begin.

    Born in 1968, your applicable age is 75 under current rules. A minimum amount must come out of tax-deferred accounts each year whether or not you need it.

Retirement cash flow

How spending is funded

Monthly spending is covered by modeled income first, then by the account sources shown in the legend.

Supporting: health coverage timelineWhat cover costs, year by year, and where the figure came from
What your healthcare actually costsProvisional

After 65 the model covers the Part B premium and income-related surcharges only. Part D, Medigap or Advantage, dental, vision and hearing sit outside these figures.

04

Choices

Which changes move this picture, and what should you be asking?

Decision levers to discuss

Complete

You selected both cases yourself, and both were run through the same model with everything else held constant. This describes a difference — it does not say which to pick.

The comparison you choseSpouse's Social Security start age: Age 67 against Age 70Both cases run through the same model with everything else held constant. Neither is described here as better.
What changedYour planThe alternativeDifference
Spouse's Social Security start ageAge 67Age 70
Modelled balance at age 100$627,964$749,230+$121,266
Modelled paths funded to age 10097%100%+3 pts

Both columns rest on the same assumptions, so the difference between them is more reliable than either figure on its own.

Interactive what-if

Explore a different scenario

Change one understandable lever and compare the updated story with the original. Your original inputs stay unchanged.

Original scenario
$
Drag to explore a comfortable range, or enter an exact amount. Results update immediately as a valid value changes. You entered this as a split, so the change is taken off what you called discretionary first: this view is $3,900 essential plus $1,500 discretionary.
Your modeled best age: 64
Spouse modeled best age: 69
Changes this view's cutoff. The engine's long-life stress test still runs through age 100; this is not a life-expectancy prediction.

Modeled best age means the highest-ending-balance result in this comparison; it is not an automatic recommendation.

Values update immediately. Showing: Funded through age 100; current ending assets $627,964 at age 100.
What moves the answer mostOne change at a time, by size of effectEach row re-runs the whole model with a single input changed and nothing else touched. Ordering describes size, not preference: none of these is recommended.
Spending $500/mo less+$243,192 at age 100Monthly living expense $5,400 → $4,900
Saving $500/mo more+$142,097 at age 100Contribution 9.0% → 20.1% of salary
Retiring 2 years later+$47,214 at age 100Retirement year 2032 → 2034 (age 66)
Claiming Social Security at 70−$56,486 at age 100Claim age 67 → 70

Why a row can be negative: these are measured by the balance left at age 100. Deferring Social Security pays nothing during the deferred years, so the model covers that spending from savings instead, and those withdrawals stop compounding at the 8.0% growth rate entered. The larger benefit that follows narrows the gap but does not always close it by age 100 at that growth rate. Ending balance is one measure: a deferred benefit is also inflation-adjusted income for life, which this column does not price.

Supporting: comparing claiming agesAll nine claiming ages from 62 to 70, run through the same model
Social Security context

What the claiming ages mean

General SSA reference for an own retirement benefit. Use your Social Security statement for the exact dollar amount; this is context, not a claiming recommendation.

YouFull retirement age: 67Scenario start age: 67
SpouseFull retirement age: 67Scenario start age: 67

For people born in 1960 or later, an own retirement benefit is about 70% at age 62, 100% at age 67, and 124% at age 70. Earlier birth years have a different full retirement age. Spousal and survivor benefits can follow different rules. Check your Social Security statement.

The Retirement Decision Model is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.

Questions worth taking to a professional
  • Taxable savings run out before your tax-deferred money is touched. Is there a withdrawal sequence that handles that transition better than taxable, then tax-deferred, then Roth?
  • Long-term care is not in these numbers at all. What would it take to cover it, and is that a cost this plan could absorb?
05

Uncertainty

What could weaken all of this, and what have we still not been told?

Risks to the plan and evidence still missing

Complete

Everything this result needs was entered, is current, and does not contradict anything else.

4 figures in this report are estimates, defaults, or blanks rather than something you told us. 1 of them could move the picture materially.

You told us one of you dying first worries you most

That is the question with the largest gap between how much it matters and how much any calculator can tell you. What follows is what this model does and does not cover.

The ones that could move the picture.
What it isCurrentlyWhy it matters
Pre-Medicare health coverEntered fact$1,050/moA quoted premium. After 65 the model still covers Part B and surcharges only.
Long-term careEntered factDeliberately excludedNot modelled at all. For a household planning into their nineties, this is the largest single cost that could arrive and has no place in these numbers.
Investment returnYour assumption8% a year, 12% volatilityYou set this yourself. Every balance after the target date depends on it.
The rest of the ledger.
What it isCurrentlyWhy it matters
PensionEntered factConfirmed: none
Dates on account balancesEntered fact31 January 2026
Exact dates of birth and claimEntered fact21 November 1968
Essential vs discretionary spendingYour assumption$3,900 + $1,500/mo
Taxable account cost basisYour assumption100%
DebtEntered factConfirmed: none
Survivor positionYour assumptionModelled from age 78
Testing the plan against market ups and downsHow much could the result vary?Stress test: 300 different return scenarios, not 300 predictions of your future.
Weaker 10%Funded past age 100
MedianFunded past age 100
Stronger 10%Funded past age 100

97% of modeled return paths stay funded through age 100. The model ran 300 paths using the entered 8% return and 12% volatility assumptions. These paths show how outcomes vary; they are not forecasts or probabilities about one specific future.

Balance range over timeP10–P90 modeled balance rangeThe shaded band contains the weaker-to-stronger 80% range; the line is the median path.
Order of returnsThe same returns, in two different ordersOne set of 43 yearly returns, averaging 6.6%, run best-first and then worst-first. Nothing else changes between the two columns.
Good years firstFunded to 100$1,459,105 at age 100
Bad years firstDepletes at 90$0 at age 100

$1,459,105 separates the two, from ordering alone. The two paths begin to diverge at age 58. Poor returns early in retirement are withdrawn against a smaller balance, which the same returns arriving later do not do. This is one illustration, not a prediction.

Read the chart as a range of modeled account balances, not as a probability forecast. The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile paths use the same seeded 300-path stress test summarized above.

View balance-range dataEvery fifth age, with the weaker, median and stronger paths side by side
AgeWeaker 10%MedianStronger 10%
58$150,000$150,000$150,000
60$150,186$178,294$205,361
65$173,482$237,315$339,018
70$266,894$384,693$558,295
75$372,044$534,251$787,863
80$328,979$545,265$948,197
85$279,813$548,799$1,017,157
90$228,259$548,931$1,088,060
95$186,231$540,515$1,259,467
100$134,549$525,753$1,337,915

Read that result carefully. A funded-paths figure is a property of the assumptions, not evidence that a plan is safe. Every one of those runs began from a 8% average return, every one included your other income arriving without fail, and none of them included long-term care, Part D, Medigap, or a cost basis different from the one entered. The test varies one thing — the order market returns arrive in — and holds every other uncertainty on this page fixed.

Assumptions, rules applied, and where they were simplifiedYour inputs · how the result is built · model rules · what is not modeled · the calculation trace
Your inputsRetirement 2032; spending $5,400/mo; savings $150,000; Social Security ages 67/67.
How the result is builtStarting savings are split across taxable/cash $25,000, tax-deferred $105,000, and Tax Advantage (Roth) $20,000. Contributions continue until retirement when salary is entered; retirement spending is funded by modeled income first, then taxable/cash, tax-deferred, and Tax Advantage (Roth) balances.
Model rulesProjection through age 100 in this view; the engine stress test still runs through age 100; today's dollars; 300 Monte Carlo trials; account-specific withdrawal and tax treatment.
Not modeled or simplifiedPre-retirement spending and income tax are not modeled. Medicare includes Part B and applicable IRMAA only; Part D plan premiums, Medigap, and Medicare Advantage premiums are not included. Tax, Social Security, and health estimates should be verified against your own documents.
Calculation trace
  1. 1. Starting balance $150,000 total: $25,000 taxable/cash + $105,000 tax-deferred + $20,000 Tax Advantage (Roth) $150,000 enters the projection
  2. 2. Timeline Retirement year 2032: The model starts retirement withdrawals at age 64 and runs through age 100. Selected projection uses claim age 67 and spouse age 67
  3. 3. Income and cost First retired year 2032: $5,400/mo base spending + $985/mo modeled additions; income offsets the cost first. $6,000/mo modeled income; $6,385/mo total expense
  4. 4. Portfolio funding First retired year 2032: After modeled income, withdrawals use taxable/cash, then tax-deferred, then Tax Advantage (Roth); any remaining need is recorded as shortfall. $385/mo withdrawn; $0/mo shortfall
  5. 5. Selected endpoint Fixed 8.0% annual return path: Monthly balances, taxes, inflation, Medicare/IRMAA, and entered income rules are applied through age 100. $627,964 at age 100
  6. 6. Range test 300 seeded return paths: Each path varies annual returns around 8.0% using 12.0% volatility; the seed keeps the screen and PDF reproducible. 290 of 300 paths funded through age 100 (97%)

Their questions, answered

What the report told them

Every figure below comes from the report above — nothing here is worked out separately, and each answer links to the stop that shows how it was reached.

“Ray picked the 50% survivor option seven years ago. Was that the right call?”

This report will not tell you whether it was right, and no model should — that is a judgement about two lives, not a calculation. What it can tell you is what the election is worth. Ray’s $3,400 pension continues to Dee at $1,700 a month for the rest of her life, cost-of-living increases intact. Had he taken the higher single-life payment instead, that line would be zero. Every figure in this report assumes the 50% he chose.

5 · Uncertainty

“Does Colorado tax military retirement? We've been told both.”

Partly — which is why you have been told both. Colorado exempts $24,000 a year of military retirement from age 65, and $20,000 before that, then taxes the rest at 4.4%. Ray’s pension is $40,800 a year, so tax falls on $16,800 of it: about $62 a month. Without the exemption it would be nearer $150. The exemption steps up on his 65th birthday, the same year his Medicare begins.

2 · Capacity3 · Timing

“What actually happens to me if Ray goes first?”

Household income falls from $8,100 a month to $4,300. The pension halves to $1,700, and Dee keeps the larger of the two Social Security benefits rather than both. Spending falls too, but only from about $6,150 to $5,950 — roughly 3%. Income down 47%, outgoings down 3%: that gap is the whole of the survivor question. The plan still holds, with 290 of 300 paths reaching 100, because a cost-of-living pension is doing the heavy lifting. Delaying Ray’s own claim to 70 would raise the benefit Dee inherits, which is the comparison set out on the Choices page.

5 · Uncertainty4 · Choices

What we could not tell them

Whether 50% was the right election at the time. That question is closed — it cannot be changed now — so the useful version is what to do about the gap it leaves, which is a conversation with a person.

Your turn

The biggest number in their plan was set by a form, not a portfolio. Find out what your own plan terms are quietly deciding.

Free to read · computed in your browser · we email once, when it opens

Or read another household — all six are here. Each one reaches a different limit.

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