RETIREMENTdecision model
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Worked example · computed live

We think we’re fine. Are we?

Watch the model reach an answer for the Hallorans, and then decline to stand behind it.

What the report will stand behind

  • Position · Provisional
  • Capacity · Provisional
  • Timing · Provisional
  • Claiming · Unavailable
  • Uncertainty · Unavailable
  • Survivor · Unavailable

The Hallorans came in fairly confident, and the arithmetic agrees with them: the money lasts. Nothing on this card is a warning. Every one of the six is marked this way because something was left unanswered, not because a number came out badly.

Half withheld

Being told you are fine is not the same as being fine, and the gap between the two is filled with things nobody checked. Most of what is missing here is not expertise and not money. It is two Social Security statements, a date against their balances, and a straight answer on whether either of them has a pension — paperwork already in their house. Any other calculator would have taken the same half-answers and handed back a number. This one lists what it does not have, so the confidence they end up with is one they can stand on.

The Hallorans

61 and 59, Raleigh, North Carolina

The Hallorans are 61 and 59, in Raleigh, with about $410,000. They came in reasonably confident and answered roughly half of what we asked.

What they have

Taxable
$95,000
Tax-deferred
$310,000
Tax Advantage (Roth)
$30,000
Social Security at 67
$2,700/mo + $1,900/mo
Spending
$5,800/mo
Health cover before Medicare
$1,200/mo

What they’re asking

We think we are fine. Are we?

How much of this did you just make up?

Their arithmetic works. The money lasts. And their report still declines to tell them they are fine — because they answered about half of what it asked. No date on the balances, so we know what they typed but not what month it was true. No Social Security statement, so the benefit figures are recalled rather than read. Pension never answered at all, which is not the same as answering no. Every headline they get is stamped Provisional, with the specific missing document named beside it, and the claiming comparison is withheld outright. Any other calculator would have given them a number and let them believe it.

The report works through these in its own order. Every one of them is answered — the answers are gathered at the end.

Run the numbers.

The full report is below, computed in your browser from exactly the figures above. Nothing is withheld and nothing is a screenshot — the controls in it work, and moving one re-runs the whole projection.

1 · Position

The headline number is there. It is stamped Provisional, and beside it is the reason and what would settle it. Not a warning banner — a specific, closeable gap.

1 · Position

They never gave a statement date for their balances. So we know what they typed; we do not know what month it was true. That is the difference between a fact and a figure, and the report keeps them apart.

4 · Choices

The claiming comparison is Unavailable, not Provisional. They never said which month they intend to claim, and a claiming comparison without it would be arithmetic pretending to be an answer.

5 · Uncertainty

The gap ledger. Ten items, each with the question that closes it. This is the page that turns a caveat into a to-do list.

You now know enough to know who to call

Nobody yet — and that is the point

“Answer the ten questions on this page first, then decide whether you need anyone at all.”

Most of what is missing here is not expertise. It is paperwork they already own: two Social Security statements, a balance date, and a straight answer on whether either of them has a pension.

← All sample householdsSAMPLE HOUSEHOLD · CALCULATED IN YOUR BROWSER

Five questions. One page each.

In 2030: $0 of income against $79,235 of chosen spending, leaving $79,235 to come from savings.

A print copy of everything below.
ScenarioTwo-person retirement planSample household · illustrative figures
Born1965 + 1967
Retire2030
Starting savings$435,000
Monthly spending$5,800
View throughAge 100
How to read this

Not every number here is equally solid, and you should be able to tell which is which at a glance. Each result carries one of four states — a statement about the evidence behind the number, never a judgement about your finances.

CompleteEverything it needs was entered and is current.
ProvisionalCalculable, but resting on a named estimate or gap.
UnavailableWithheld on purpose — guessing would look trustworthy and be wrong.
Not applicableChecked, and it does not apply to you.

A blank field is never read as a zero. If you never told us about a pension, this report says so — because a $0 quietly becomes part of the answer and a blank does not.

01

Position

Where you stand on the date you chose.

Where you stand

Given what you have told us, what does your cash flow look like on 30 June 2030?

Target-date household cash-flow position

In 2030, no income we know of arrives. Your chosen spending for that year is $79,235. The difference — $79,235 — comes out of your accounts.

Your chosen spending for the year$79,235
Provisional

Your account balances carry no measurement date. Add the date you read these balances from a statement.

Your healthcare cost is an estimate rather than a quoted premium. Add a plan name and a quoted monthly premium.

The pension question has not been answered, so a $0 cannot be read as "no pension". Answer whether a pension applies — "no" is a real answer and firms this up.

The modelling assumptions we started you with have not been reviewed. Open the modelling assumptions panel and keep or change each one.

Your age at the target date is worked out from a year, not a date. Add your date of birth.

Social SecurityNot yetStarts later in the timeline
PensionNot answeredNobody has told us yet
Other regular incomeNone enteredRental, part-time work, annuities
How this number was worked outThe rule, the published source, and the arithmetic — line by line

This figure uses no investment return and no inflation forecast. It is arithmetic on the amounts you entered, at the date you chose, in today's dollars.

income arriving at 30 June 2030
  Social Security                 $0
  pension                         $0
  other regular income            $0
                                  ------------
                                  $0

spending chosen for that year     $79,235

position = $0 - $79,235 = -$79,235 drawn from savings

What is not in here: tax on the withdrawal and the health premium are modelled elsewhere in the projection but are not netted into this headline. This page answers what arrives against what you plan to spend, and nothing more.

02

Capacity

How your resources compare with the spending you chose.

How do the resources you entered compare with the spending you chose?

Spending coverage under selected assumptions

You entered $435,000 of savings. The first year's draw of $79,235 is 18.2% of it. This report does not tell you whether that rate is sustainable — that is a conversation, not a calculation.

Provisional

Your account balances carry no measurement date. Add the date you read these balances from a statement.

Your healthcare cost is an estimate rather than a quoted premium. Add a plan name and a quoted monthly premium.

The pension question has not been answered, so a $0 cannot be read as "no pension". Answer whether a pension applies — "no" is a real answer and firms this up.

The modelling assumptions we started you with have not been reviewed. Open the modelling assumptions panel and keep or change each one.

Your spending is one figure, so this page cannot show which part of the gap is optional. Split your monthly spending into what must be paid and what you would choose to spend.

Two ways of measuring the same draw. Both are shown because they answer different questions.
Measured againstAmountFirst-year drawBasis
Savings you enteredThe money that exists today$435,00018.2%Entered fact
Modelled balance at your target dateAfter further saving and 8% assumed growth$515,92915.4%Model-derived

Why the second row is the weaker of the two. $515,929 assumes your investments return 8% a year between now and then — the figure the tool started you with, not one you researched. Two flat years instead would leave you nearer the $435,000 line, and move the draw back towards 18.2% before you have spent a thing.

What drives the differenceThe inputs doing the most work in this resultEach row re-runs the whole model with one input changed and nothing else touched.
Monthly spending$5,800/mo
Model treatment

Base input is $5,800/mo; first-retirement modeled cost is about $6,603/mo after modeled additions.

Result signal

$6,603/mo is the first-year portfolio need before both claimed benefits begin.

Starting savings$435,000
Model treatment

Provides the initial funding base across taxable, tax-deferred, and Tax Advantage (Roth) accounts.

Result signal

$167,805 remains at the selected horizon in this path.

Social Security$2,700 + $1,900/mo at stated ages
Model treatment

Adds household income when each person claims.

Result signal

Household Social Security modeled at $4,600/mo once both benefits are in payment; this can differ from the entered reference amounts.

Retirement timing2030
Model treatment

Sets the end of saving and the start of portfolio-funded spending.

Result signal

Funded through age 100 at the selected timeline.

Market assumptions8% retirement accounts; 3% taxable/cash
Model treatment

Retirement accounts and taxable/cash balances use separate growth assumptions; volatility affects the range test.

Result signal

12% volatility is used for the 300-path market stress test.

Inflation and tax2.5% inflation; NC tax treatment
Model treatment

Future costs are reported in today’s dollars; modeled tax and IRMAA are added to spending where applicable.

Result signal

The tax result is a planning estimate, not a tax-return calculation.

Health costs$1,200/mo before Medicare; Medicare on
Model treatment

Health insurance, Medicare Part B, and applicable IRMAA can be added to modeled expense.

Result signal

Part D plan premiums, Medigap, and Medicare Advantage premiums are not included.

03

Timing

When does anything actually change?

Income and coverage timeline

Provisional

Dates below are placed to the year, because we have a birth year rather than a date. Add your date of birth to place each event in the right month.

The month work income stops has not been given. Add the month you plan to stop working.

Your spouse's work-exit month has not been given. Add the month your spouse plans to stop working.

  • 2030 · you are 65, your spouse 63 · your choice

    Work income stops. Withdrawals begin.

    No guaranteed income arrives yet, so your savings carry all $79,235 of spending until the first payment starts in 2032.

  • 2030 · you are 65, your spouse 63 · automatic

    You reach Medicare age.

    Your Part B premium and any income-related surcharge begin. Your spouse is not eligible for another 2 years, so private cover for them continues until 2032 — the part of the $1,200/mo premium that is theirs does not end here.

  • 2031 · you are 66, your spouse 64 · automatic

    Withdrawals start coming from tax-deferred savings.

    Taxable and cash accounts are close to exhausted. Money drawn from here is taxed as ordinary income.

  • 2032 · you are 67, your spouse 65 · automatic

    Your spouse reaches Medicare age.

    Private cover ends for the household. Both of you are now on Part B, each with your own premium and any surcharge priced off the same household income.

  • 2032 · you are 67, your spouse 65 · your choice

    Social Security begins — $2,700 a month.

    The monthly draw on savings moves from about $6,603 to about $3,943.

  • 2034 · you are 69, your spouse 67 · your choice

    Household benefit rises to $4,600 a month.

    The second benefit starts. The years before this point are the stretch your savings have to cover.

  • 2040 · you are 75, your spouse 73 · automatic

    Required minimum distributions begin.

    Born in 1965, your applicable age is 75 under current rules. A minimum amount must come out of tax-deferred accounts each year whether or not you need it.

Retirement cash flow

How spending is funded

Monthly spending is covered by modeled income first, then by the account sources shown in the legend.

Supporting: health coverage timelineWhat cover costs, year by year, and where the figure came from
What your healthcare actually costsUnavailable

The pre-Medicare premium is an estimate with no plan behind it. Add a plan name and a quoted premium.

Whether that premium covers one person or two has not been recorded. Say who the premium covers.

04

Choices

Which changes move this picture, and what should you be asking?

Decision levers to discuss

Not applicable

A comparison needs a baseline and one alternative you choose. None has been selected. Pick one thing to change, and this page fills in.

Interactive what-if

Explore a different scenario

Change one understandable lever and compare the updated story with the original. Your original inputs stay unchanged.

Original scenario
$
Drag to explore a comfortable range, or enter an exact amount. Results update immediately as a valid value changes.
Your modeled best age: 69
Spouse modeled best age: 66
Changes this view's cutoff. The engine's long-life stress test still runs through age 100; this is not a life-expectancy prediction.

Modeled best age means the highest-ending-balance result in this comparison; it is not an automatic recommendation.

Values update immediately. Showing: Funded through age 100; current ending assets $167,805 at age 100.
What moves the answer mostOne change at a time, by size of effectEach row re-runs the whole model with a single input changed and nothing else touched. Ordering describes size, not preference: none of these is recommended.
Retiring 2 years later+$660,873 at age 100Retirement year 2030 → 2032 (age 67)
Spending $500/mo less+$489,653 at age 100Monthly living expense $5,800 → $5,300
Claiming Social Security at 70+$34,975 at age 100Claim age 67 → 70
Supporting: comparing claiming agesAll nine claiming ages from 62 to 70, run through the same model
What your benefits are worth at different claiming agesUnavailable

Your exact date of birth is needed. Add your date of birth.

The month you intend to claim is needed. Add your intended claiming month.

Your spouse's exact date of birth is needed. Add your spouse's date of birth.

The month your spouse intends to claim is needed. Add your spouse's intended claiming month.

Questions worth taking to a professional
  • Taxable savings run out before your tax-deferred money is touched. Is there a withdrawal sequence that handles that transition better than taxable, then tax-deferred, then Roth?
  • There is a stretch at the start of retirement with no Social Security arriving. Is drawing on savings through it the right shape, or is there a case for claiming earlier?
  • You have $310,000 in tax-deferred savings and a stretch before required distributions begin. Does a Roth conversion belong in the conversation?
  • No pension has been recorded for this household. Is that because there is none, or because it has not been checked?
  • Long-term care is not in these numbers at all. What would it take to cover it, and is that a cost this plan could absorb?
05

Uncertainty

What could weaken all of this, and what have we still not been told?

Risks to the plan and evidence still missing

Unavailable

This page reports risk through a lens you choose, and none has been selected. Choose which uncertainty to look through — "none in particular" is a valid choice.

Testing the plan against market ups and downsHow much could the result vary?Stress test: 300 different return scenarios, not 300 predictions of your future.
Weaker 10%Age 78
MedianAge 98
Stronger 10%Funded past age 100

46% of modeled return paths stay funded through age 100. The model ran 300 paths using the entered 8% return and 12% volatility assumptions. These paths show how outcomes vary; they are not forecasts or probabilities about one specific future.

Balance range over timeP10–P90 modeled balance rangeThe shaded band contains the weaker-to-stronger 80% range; the line is the median path.
Order of returnsThe same returns, in two different ordersOne set of 40 yearly returns, averaging 7.3%, run best-first and then worst-first. Nothing else changes between the two columns.
Good years firstFunded to 100$2,761,844 at age 100
Bad years firstDepletes at 68$0 at age 100

$2,761,844 separates the two, from ordering alone. The two paths begin to diverge at age 61. Poor returns early in retirement are withdrawn against a smaller balance, which the same returns arriving later do not do. This is one illustration, not a prediction.

Read the chart as a range of modeled account balances, not as a probability forecast. The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile paths use the same seeded 300-path stress test summarized above.

View balance-range dataEvery fifth age, with the weaker, median and stronger paths side by side
AgeWeaker 10%MedianStronger 10%
61$435,000$435,000$435,000
65$397,821$517,300$643,316
70$138,211$316,519$608,514
75$52,254$284,932$704,013
80$0$248,408$763,245
85$0$203,069$916,408
90$0$139,572$976,030
95$0$54,604$1,057,111
100$0$0$1,123,323

Read that result carefully. A funded-paths figure is a property of the assumptions, not evidence that a plan is safe. Every one of those runs began from a 8% average return, every one included your other income arriving without fail, and none of them included long-term care, Part D, Medigap, or a cost basis different from the one entered. The test varies one thing — the order market returns arrive in — and holds every other uncertainty on this page fixed.

Assumptions, rules applied, and where they were simplifiedYour inputs · how the result is built · model rules · what is not modeled · the calculation trace
Your inputsRetirement 2030; spending $5,800/mo; savings $435,000; Social Security ages 67/67.
How the result is builtStarting savings are split across taxable/cash $95,000, tax-deferred $310,000, and Tax Advantage (Roth) $30,000. Contributions continue until retirement when salary is entered; retirement spending is funded by modeled income first, then taxable/cash, tax-deferred, and Tax Advantage (Roth) balances.
Model rulesProjection through age 100 in this view; the engine stress test still runs through age 100; today's dollars; 300 Monte Carlo trials; account-specific withdrawal and tax treatment.
Not modeled or simplifiedPre-retirement spending and income tax are not modeled. Medicare includes Part B and applicable IRMAA only; Part D plan premiums, Medigap, and Medicare Advantage premiums are not included. Tax, Social Security, and health estimates should be verified against your own documents.
Calculation trace
  1. 1. Starting balance $435,000 total: $95,000 taxable/cash + $310,000 tax-deferred + $30,000 Tax Advantage (Roth) $435,000 enters the projection
  2. 2. Timeline Retirement year 2030: The model starts retirement withdrawals at age 65 and runs through age 100. Selected projection uses claim age 67 and spouse age 67
  3. 3. Income and cost First retired year 2030: $5,800/mo base spending + $803/mo modeled additions; income offsets the cost first. $0/mo modeled income; $6,603/mo total expense
  4. 4. Portfolio funding First retired year 2030: After modeled income, withdrawals use taxable/cash, then tax-deferred, then Tax Advantage (Roth); any remaining need is recorded as shortfall. $6,603/mo withdrawn; $0/mo shortfall
  5. 5. Selected endpoint Fixed 8.0% annual return path: Monthly balances, taxes, inflation, Medicare/IRMAA, and entered income rules are applied through age 100. $167,805 at age 100
  6. 6. Range test 300 seeded return paths: Each path varies annual returns around 8.0% using 12.0% volatility; the seed keeps the screen and PDF reproducible. 137 of 300 paths funded through age 100 (46%)
Detailed tables, sources, methodology, and version information follow the explanation above.

Their questions, answered

What the report told them

Every figure below comes from the report above — nothing here is worked out separately, and each answer links to the stop that shows how it was reached.

“We think we are fine. Are we?”

The arithmetic says the money lasts. The report will not tell you that you are fine. Those are not the same sentence, and the difference is the point. On a steady return your savings reach 100; under the stress test 137 of 300 paths do, 46%. But three of your headline results are marked Provisional and three are withheld altogether, because about half of what we asked went unanswered. A number resting on half the evidence is not a finding, and this report will not dress one up as one.

1 · Position5 · Uncertainty

“How much of this did you just make up?”

None of it — but four figures here are ours rather than yours, and the ledger names all ten gaps. You gave balances with no date, so we know what you typed and not what month it was true. Social Security figures with no statement behind them, so they are recalled rather than read. No answer on a pension at all, which is not the same as answering no. No intended claiming month, which is why the claiming comparison is withheld instead of estimated. Every one of those is a document you already own.

5 · Uncertainty1 · Position

What we could not tell them

Whether they are fine. They probably are. But "probably" built on half the evidence is not a finding, and a calculator that says it anyway is the reason people stop trusting calculators.

Your turn

Their arithmetic worked and the report still would not confirm it. Find out which of your own answers are still missing.

Free to read · computed in your browser · we email once, when it opens

Or read another household — all six are here. Each one reaches a different limit.

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